By Matt Elsner

If Saddam Hussein were to suddenly be possessed by the spirit of Mother Theresa, troops would still be on their way.

Happy New Year, everybody. Like many of you, I become a bit introspective this time of year, and I look back at the year past and think about where I am today versus where I was a year ago. I think that it also makes sense to think about where the world, the nation, and even our fine city are these days versus a year ago.

At the dawn of 2002, everyone was still reeling from 9/11. However, we were making progress in Afghanistan, and we were making inroads against al Queda worldwide. While Afghanistan is undoubtedly a much safer place today (especially for Afghani women) than a year ago, much nation building remains. Al Queda, although weakened, still remains a potent force around the world and they are rebuilding their operations in the region, both in Pakistan and eastern Afghanistan. It remains to be seen whether long-term peace and stability will take hold there, and whether or not al Queda will ever be truly crippled. Today, like a year ago, Osama bin Laden remains on the loose, able to direct horrific acts of terror against the United States and our citizens.

A year ago, people were debating where Bush’s "Axis of Evil" comments might lead. Today, we’re beginning to get a taste of what that future holds. War with Iraq is inevitable, and anyone who suggests otherwise is naïve. This is not, however, because the Iraqis are in "material breach" of the UN resolutions regarding their disarmament, although that truth does provide adequate causus belli for The United States to go in and set up a regime friendly to US petroleum interests. If Saddam Hussein were to suddenly be possessed by the spirit of Mother Theresa, troops would still be on their way. This is not about fighting terror, it is about Iraqi liberation – the liberation of billions of barrels of Iraqi oil buried beneath the desert. Let’s all just hope that when the shooting starts within the next few weeks that it is finished quickly. I think everyone would hate to see too many body bags piling up just so that Bush’s biggest contributors can get a whole lot richer.

…we can just tell them that we're going to economically
isolate their already starving country until they say Uncle (Sam).

The second leg in the Axis of Evil, Iran, hasn’t been as noteworthy. Secular attitudes continue to spread, but, like in the United States, the religious hard-liners have an iron grip on power. What is troubling is their decision to expand their nuclear energy (read: nuclear weapons) program, especially in light of the continued regional instability. Iran will likely feel less secure with the establishment of a pro-Western regime in Iraq, and we certainly don’t need any more insecure regimes with nukes on our hands.

Which brings us to our third AOE member, North Korea. In the past year we’ve gone from having a crappy, albeit relatively stable relationship to having virtually no relationship at all. North Korea has admitted that they possess nuclear weapons, and have now kicked out the inspectors who have been keeping an eye on things since the 1994 agreement to freeze their nuclear program. But just remember, this, unlike Iraq, is not a crisis. Even though both countries are led by megalomaniacal dictators, Korea has far greater military capabilities and has the capacity to inflict much greater damage against our allies and interests. But, since this isn’t a crisis (thank God), we can just tell them that we’re going to economically isolate their already starving country until they say Uncle (Sam). I’m certain that lil’ Kim will realize the error of his ways, say "my bad," and dismantle his weapons of mass destruction. So even though things look bad in Korea right now, we can be sure that it is not a crisis and everyone can continue to ignore the simmering hostility of the last half-century.

Back home, people are indeed recovering from 9/11, even if the economy isn’t. The Dow and the S&P 500 are down more than 15% for the year, and the NASDAQ is down almost 30%. I don’t know about you, but my 401k has been shrinking almost as fast as our budget surplus did. Speaking of budget surpluses, they are merely a distant memory, and we now face big budget deficits as far as the eye can see so that the richest Americans can pay even lower taxes. Unemployment continues to climb, as do the ridiculously super-sized compensation packages of our corporate oligarchs. We do, however, have a strengthened SEC and new legislation in the form of Sarbanes-Oxley to protect investor’s interests, even if the current administration refuses to fully fund it.

…it is possible that Chief Justice Rehnquist will retire this year, leaving Bush to pack the Supreme Court with another conservative and thus inhibit judicial sanity for another generation.

Politically, the Democrats took a beating this year. We now have one of the most politically conservative and dissent-proof White Houses in decades, leading a legislature whose two branches are also in the hands of the far right. But don’t worry, the landscape can still tilt even further: it is possible that Chief Justice Rehnquist will retire this year, leaving Bush to pack the Supreme Court with another conservative and thus inhibit judicial sanity for another generation. On the plus side, Al Gore finally decided not to run for President in 2004, which means…well, the Democrats don’t necessarily have a good candidate, but they have gotten rid of a bad one.

Back home here in New York, recycling has been severely curtailed, but so has smoking in bars. While the first doesn’t really make sense (even if it does save NYC a few million dollars every year), the second does. While you’re likely to see more people standing outside of bars puffing away, I think you’re more also likely to see bigger crowds inside the bars because of it. I know I’m not the only person who can’t stand trying to get drunk while sitting inside a toxic cloud. When I go out to a bar, I’m there to pollute my liver, not my lungs, damnit! Outside of that, NYC continues to rebuild, and while none of the proposed plans for the World Trade Center site are truly inspiring, they are much better than the initial plans that were presented.

So where do we stand a year later? Our pockets are a little lighter (unless, unlike me, you’re in that top 1% income bracket), the religious white, I mean right (sorry, Trent) has tightened their grip on the reigns of power, and we still have no idea when more anthrax will end up in our mail or when the next bombs will go off.

But at least now we can more safely go down to the bar and make it all better.

Happy New Year, everybody.